{"id":10730,"date":"2020-01-14T10:33:31","date_gmt":"2020-01-14T18:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/?p=10730"},"modified":"2023-01-27T11:58:22","modified_gmt":"2023-01-27T19:58:22","slug":"what-is-scenario-what-if-planning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning","title":{"rendered":"What is Scenario \u201cWhat if?\u201d Planning?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10731\" src=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1-300x189.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1-768x484.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1-696x438.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1-667x420.jpg 667w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Hello. My name is Howard Roddie, UK Services lead with <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dys.com\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"QAD Dynasys (opens in a new tab)\">QAD Dynasys<\/a>. I\u2019m also a keen runner. Today, I want to talk about Scenario planning, also known as \u201cWhat if\u201d or contingency planning.\u00a0In order to plan, we need a strategy &#8211; Long term. Let me share my Strategy for running.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>When I started running, I could have aimed to run a marathon. So, after 6 months I would run a marathon, feel good about it, then most likely stop due to unconsidered scenarios &#8211; Injury, fatigue, missing my family.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>But I took a different view. Here are my long term goals.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\">\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Year 1 &#8211; Run a 10K race<\/li>\r\n<li>Year 5 &#8211; Run 10K in less than 45 minutes<\/li>\r\n<li>60th Birthday &#8211; Run a mile in 7:30<\/li>\r\n<li>80th birthday &#8211; get out of bed unaided<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>By focussing on these goals and planning long term, I have maintained my interest in running despite short and medium-term disruptions &#8211; injuries, traveling, weather<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>The point is, we can\u2019t plan unless we know our goals and have a strategy to reach them. Disruptions are inevitable, but we need to identify them, then plan to deal with them.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Do your planners and schedulers know the goals of your business and the strategy adopted to reach them?\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>At the strategic level, we plan to use the things we can control to deal with the things we can\u2019t.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>We can control our capacity to produce, our marketing, our product evolution&#8230; but we can\u2019t control Brexit or climate change.\u00a0 At this level, we would test our normal plan against 2 alternative but extreme scenarios, typically one pessimistic and one optimistic. If we can cope with these, then we can weather most storms.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>At Davos in 2018, Canada\u2019s PM, Justin Trudeau said:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><em>\u201cThe pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be this slow again.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Australian wildfire, Brexit, Iran\/USA troubles\u2026 Who knows what will happen in the tactical horizon &#8211; 80 days from now.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>If we don\u2019t plan &#8220;what if?&#8221; scenarios we will fail. Planning is all about seizing our opportunities whilst minimizing risk. The only way to survive is to succeed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Tactically, we can consider many things &#8211; Alternative demand scenarios, Supply issues, and procurement opportunities, expanding lead times for fresh product imports. There is a tendency to plan for every possibility, creating many scenarios. At the end, we need to come up with one plan for our business. Tactical planning works best when using a low number of scenarios, but with many factors. If we can do the extremes, our plans will most likely survive anything in between.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Operationally we have to deal with forecast error &#8211; Promotions and exports\u2026 Maybe additional demand caused by competitors&#8217; failure to plan?\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>We need to cope with our issues too &#8211; unexpected shutdowns, strikes, component shortages. At the operational level, we are using the things under our control to deliver the plan that deals with the things we once thought were out of our control.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>This is how I plan to get out of bed unaided on my 80th birthday.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hello. My name is Howard Roddie, UK Services lead with QAD Dynasys. I\u2019m also a keen runner. Today, I want to talk about Scenario planning, also known as \u201cWhat if\u201d or contingency planning.\u00a0In order to plan, we need a strategy &#8211; Long term. Let me share my Strategy for running.\u00a0 When I started running, I [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":148,"featured_media":10731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2045],"tags":[789,697,2542,433,2551,2552,696,898,92,2553],"class_list":["post-10730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-supply-chain-trends","tag-brexit","tag-disruption","tag-justin-trudeau","tag-plan","tag-race","tag-running","tag-scenario-planning","tag-strategy","tag-supply-chain","tag-what-if"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What is Scenario \u201cWhat if?\u201d Planning? - QAD Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let&#039;s talk about Scenario planning, also known as \u201cWhat if\u201d or contingency planning. In order to plan, we need a strategy - Long term.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What is Scenario \u201cWhat if?\u201d Planning? - QAD Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let&#039;s talk about Scenario planning, also known as \u201cWhat if\u201d or contingency planning. In order to plan, we need a strategy - Long term.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"QAD Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/QADerp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-01-14T18:33:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-01-27T19:58:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Howard Roddie\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@QAD_Community\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@QAD_Community\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Howard Roddie\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Howard Roddie\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5038e856bd2af19f0fefad0d13dd86db\"},\"headline\":\"What is Scenario \u201cWhat if?\u201d Planning?\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-14T18:33:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-01-27T19:58:22+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning\"},\"wordCount\":519,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Brexit\",\"disruption\",\"Justin Trudeau\",\"plan\",\"Race\",\"Running\",\"scenario planning\",\"strategy\",\"supply chain\",\"what-if\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Supply Chain\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning\",\"name\":\"What is Scenario \u201cWhat if?\u201d Planning? - QAD Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/2020\\\/01\\\/what-is-scenario-what-if-planning#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.qad.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/Scenario-what-if-planning-blog-QAD-DynaSys1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-14T18:33:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-01-27T19:58:22+00:00\",\"description\":\"Let's talk about Scenario planning, also known as \u201cWhat if\u201d or contingency planning. 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