{"id":9505,"date":"2021-05-25T10:03:22","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T17:03:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/?p=9505"},"modified":"2021-05-25T10:04:21","modified_gmt":"2021-05-25T17:04:21","slug":"why-the-ev-is-now-cheaper-than-an-ice-vehicle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/why-the-ev-is-now-cheaper-than-an-ice-vehicle","title":{"rendered":"Why the EV is Now Cheaper than an ICE Vehicle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;9506&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221;][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Battery Costs Have Officially Reached Parity with the Internal <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Combustion Engine<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the largest inhibitors of electrification has been battery costs. The high cost per kilowatt-<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hour (kWh) has made it hard for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to truly compete against the lower cost structure of fossil-fueled vehicles.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2016, experts predicted that cost parity between BEVs and <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/how-the-end-of-the-ice-age-may-surprise-you\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ICE<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which would require a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">battery cost of roughly $100 per kWh, wouldn\u2019t occur until at least 2030. This meant the industry <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">wouldn\u2019t see a realistic adoption of BEVs for at least another decade and would instead see a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more modest shift from ICE to BEVs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, recent innovations to the lithium-ion battery have broken those barriers and put BEVs cost on par with fossil-fueled vehicles nearly 10 years earlier than projected. In many instances, the production, ownership, and maintenance of a BEV are actually cheaper than the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle design.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Subsequently, these innovations are almost guaranteed to catapult the industry into <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">electrification and rapidly increase the production and ownership of BEVs.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tesla\u2019s Innovative Battery Design<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the most significant battery announcements came from the \u201cTesla Battery Day,\u201d when <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tesla unveiled its new \u201c4680\u201d tabless, high-nickel, dry cathode, silicon anode cylindrical battery cell. The innovative battery design promises to increase the battery pack\u2019s power, range, and energy capacity\u2014all while streamlining the production process and reducing the overall battery cost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tesla\u2019s new \u201c4680\u201d battery pack has dropped battery costs as low as $57 (USD) per kW\/h\u2014$40 less than the needed $100 per kW\/h to reach cost parity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The new cell-to-pack design also makes it easier to streamline and scale the production of the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">new batteries\u2014further dropping investment and manufacturing costs. These lower costs don\u2019t <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">come at the expense of functionality either. The new battery packs resulted in a 54% <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">improvement from EV ranges, further reducing costs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These advancements have enabled Tesla to lower the total cost of production for a battery-<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">electric vehicle by $5,000 &#8211; $7,000 per vehicle. This is an astronomical change to the industry as it makes EVs officially more affordable than the traditional internal combustion engine.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Competitor\u2019s Battery Strategies<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A large implication of Tesla\u2019s announcement is the guarantee that other OEMs and technology <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">companies will be rushing to compete. We can expect to hear even more announcements in the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">near future as competitors scramble to duplicate the design or come to the market with their <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">own innovations. Some competitors, however, have already come to the table with their own <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">designs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">General Motors (GM) recently <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/gm-partners-lg-chem-build-ohio-battery-factory-joint-venture-2019-12\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced its partnership<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with the tech giant LG Chem to <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">produce low-cobalt batteries from its $2.3 billion factory in Ohio. Under their \u201cUltium Battery <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strategy,\u201d the two corporations plan to reduce the priciest component of current battery <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">technology, Cobalt, and drive battery costs well below $100 per 400-mile range battery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The most significant feature of the Ultium battery is its unique pouch design, which could make it versatile enough to pair with a broader range of vehicles and use cases.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China\u2019s Key Role in Lowering Battery Costs<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another key area of battery innovation is coming from China. Contemporary Amperex <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Technology Ltd. (CATL) is a state-owned Chinese battery manufacturer that, despite its relative <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">youth, has climbed to become the global leader in lithium-ion battery development and manufacturing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This year, the new battery giant plans to provide Tesla with an improved long-life nickel- <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">manganese-cobalt (NMC) battery pack. The innovative NMC battery design only consists of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20% Cobalt, dropping costs to $100\/kWh\u2014on par with the average cost of a fossil-fuel vehicle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CATL was also behind the creation of the cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery that <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropped the battery pack price below $80\/kWh and battery cells below $60\/kWh, as well as the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">development of the cell-to-pack packaging process that streamlined and shortened the process <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and further reduced costs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As we speed into a battery-powered future, <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.catl.com\/en\/news\/651.html\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CATL will be the company to look to<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for innovation <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and industry-wide standards.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additional Factors that Influence the Cost of BEVs<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Battery technology isn\u2019t the only thing that is making EVs a more economical choice. Its <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2021\/01\/building-a-quality-culture-design-quality-from-the-start\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">simpler<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">design<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and fewer parts allow OEMs to operate under a leaner, more streamlined process, eliminating the assembly needs of hundreds of components.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The cost of maintenance and servicing will also be all but virtually eliminated, with no more oil <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">changes, engine checks, or gas station stops. Instead, many \u201crepairs\u201d and updates could be done via Bluetooth and WiFi. Plus, with a longer projected lifespan, BEV owners won\u2019t have to invest as often in a new vehicle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Government influence is also playing a major role in BEV adoption. This global legislation is <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">pushing the industry into electrification quicker, the heavy investments are also helping to speed up cost parity and bridge the gap between ICE and BEV. Many governments are investing <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">heavily in the technology and infrastructure required for a zero-emission automotive market by <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">implementing incentive programs, installing public charging stations, and adopting EV <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ownership themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lower Battery Costs are Cranking Up the Pressure to Electrify<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The pressure to reach a cleaner electrified automotive market is no longer coming only from <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">environmental motivations and <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2021\/02\/the-global-impact-of-zev-mandates-on-the-u-s-auto-industry\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">global legislation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Major battery breakthroughs and strategic <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">investments have drastically reduced the cost of production, ownership, and maintenance of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">electric vehicles (EVs), officially making EVs more cost-effective than their traditional fossil-<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fueled competitor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overall, this significant milestone only further solidifies that electric vehicles are the future. Battery costs have already dropped 90% over the last decade and are expected to continue to fall, making EVs the more economical, <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/climate-change-will-drive-manufacturing-innovation\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">environmental<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and logical choice for automakers and <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">consumers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These announcements, coming years ahead of predictions, have paved significant shortcuts in the previously established timeline to a zero-emission automotive market. Suppliers, investors, start-ups, and other key players should take this as a loud and clear warning\u2014if you haven\u2019t yet strategized how you will cope with the coming changes, your company will face a significant hit. Automotive suppliers, in particular, should be focused on <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.qad.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/scenario-planning-in-the-midst-of-disruption\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">scenario planning<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to determine how they will adapt or scale down as BEVs take over an increasingly larger portion of the market.<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;9506&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221;][vc_column_text] Battery Costs Have Officially Reached Parity with the Internal Combustion Engine One of the largest inhibitors of electrification has been battery costs. The high cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) has made it hard for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to truly compete against the lower cost structure of fossil-fueled vehicles. In 2016, experts predicted [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":9506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,199],"tags":[7,46,127,1202,667,496,1666,620,495,1569,1664,450,1662,1663,1665],"class_list":["post-9505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-manufacturing-trends","tag-automotive","tag-automotive-manufacturing","tag-automotive-suppliers","tag-automotive-supply-chain","tag-battery-electric-vehicles","tag-bev","tag-catl","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-electrification","tag-ev","tag-general-motors","tag-ice","tag-internal-combustion-engines","tag-tesla","tag-ultium-battery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the EV is Now Cheaper than an ICE Vehicle | QAD Blog<\/title>\n<meta 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