A Comparative Analysis of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election will have significant ramifications for the automotive industry, particularly concerning the future of electric vehicles (EVs). With the Biden administration setting aggressive targets through the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and partnership with the constantly evolving California Air Resources Board (CARB) regulations, the stakes are high. This report compares the projected policies of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump, analyzing their impact on light, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles, as well as the broader automotive landscape.

Biden’s Current and Projected Policies (2024-2028)

Current Policy Overview

Under President Biden, the push towards Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) has been aggressive across all vehicle categories. These efforts aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transition the U.S. fleet towards more sustainable vehicle options. The two core elements of his policy include:

• EPA’s 2027-2032 Regulations: These regulations set ambitious CO2 emissions targets across light, medium and heavy-duty vehicle segments. Each segment faces different goals, but all are expected to see significant increases in ZEV penetration, including BEVs, Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles​.
• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): Financial incentives through tax credits remain a cornerstone of Biden’s policies. Consumers can receive up to $7,500 for qualifying EV purchases, while manufacturers benefit from production tax credits (PTCs) tied to battery production​.

Breakdown by Vehicle Category

1. 1. Light-Duty Vehicles
      • Target: The 2027-2032 EPA regulations for light-duty vehicles, which include passenger cars and small trucks, mandate a 50-60% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2032. The regulations assume that 67% of new light-duty vehicle sales will be ZEVs by 2032. This mandate is aligned with the California Advanced Clean Cars II standards, which further push the boundaries of ZEV adoption​.
      • Technological Expectations: To meet these standards, the industry will rely heavily on BEVs, as PHEVs face limitations due to stricter criteria. Automakers are expected to adopt new powertrain technologies, increase battery efficiency, and improve charging infrastructure to meet consumer needs.
   2. Medium-Duty Vehicles
      • Target: Medium-duty vehicles (classes 2b and 3), including vocational trucks and larger utility vehicles, are expected to achieve a CO2 reduction of 45% by 2032. This category also includes a 50% adoption of ZEVs by 2032, driven by advancements in battery technology and hydrogen fuel cell powertrains​.
      • Regulatory Push: These vehicles fall under both EPA’s federal regulations and CARB’s Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) rule, which requires fleet operators to integrate more ZEVs. Federal incentives will likely remain in place to encourage manufacturers to develop more fuel-efficient medium-duty trucks that align with state-specific mandates​.
   3. Heavy-Duty Vehicles
      • Target: The heavy-duty vehicle segment (class 7-8 trucks), which includes freight trucks and long-haul vehicles, faces stringent regulations under the EPA’s Phase 3 Greenhouse Gas Standards for 2027-2032. These standards aim to cut CO2 emissions by 25-45%, with a ZEV adoption target of 25% for class 8 sleeper cabs by 2032​.
      • Challenges and Opportunities: Heavy-duty trucks will see increasing reliance on hydrogen fuel cells and extended-range battery packs, with the support of massive investments in charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Vocational trucks, such as delivery vehicles and public transit, are projected to lead the way in ZEV adoption, while long-haul trucking is likely to trail due to technological and infrastructure challenges.

Projected Policies (2024-2028)

If re-elected, Biden was expected to continue with these regulations, likely enhancing them based on emerging technologies and public sentiment.

• Tightening of Emissions Standards: The current trajectory suggests the Biden administration would push the target for ZEV sales even higher by 2032, with more stringent emissions reductions across all vehicle segments. The current target of 50% ZEV sales for light-duty vehicles could increase to 60-70% by 2035. Many expected a second Biden term to work towards accelerating mandates.
• Continued Support for Commercial Fleets: Through CARB’s Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation, commercial fleets, particularly in states adhering to California’s standards, will face stricter ZEV integration mandates. Heavy-duty vehicles in commercial fleets will need to incorporate hydrogen fuel cells or large battery packs as the infrastructure for such vehicles expands. Federal incentives will continue in this scenario and will likely play a critical role in supporting this transition​.

Harris’s Potential Policies

Policy Continuation and Acceleration

Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to build upon the Biden administration’s foundation, with an emphasis on accelerating the transition to Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) across all vehicle segments. Here’s a breakdown of how her acceleration of policies could impact light, medium and heavy-duty vehicles:

1. 1. Light-Duty Vehicles
      • Stricter EPA Mandates: Harris is likely to push for more stringent EPA regulations, possibly increasing the target for ZEVs in the light-duty segment to 60-70% of new sales by 2032. This would require manufacturers to adopt new technologies at a faster rate, including more efficient batteries and expanded charging networks. The focus would be on pushing BEVs to become the dominant vehicle type, with PHEVs playing a supportive role during the transition​.
      • Infrastructure Expansion: Harris could advocate for an even broader rollout of charging infrastructure, particularly in underserved areas, to ensure that the transition to electric vehicles is accessible to all Americans. This would likely include federal incentives for both public and private investments in charging stations​.
   2. Medium-Duty Vehicles
      • Increased ZEV Adoption: For medium-duty vehicles, Harris’s administration might set a target where up to 50% of new medium-duty vehicle sales would need to be ZEVs by 2032. This category includes vehicles such as delivery trucks and utility vehicles, where battery electric powertrains and hydrogen fuel cells are expected to see significant growth.
      • Enhanced Support for Fleets: Harris is expected to increase incentives for commercial fleets to transition to ZEVs. This could involve expanding the current rebates and tax credits available under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to further lower the cost of purchasing and operating ZEVs​.
   3. Heavy-Duty Vehicles
      • Ambitious Standards for Heavy-Duty Trucks: The heavy-duty vehicle segment, which includes long-haul trucks and vocational vehicles like buses and refuse trucks, would likely see aggressive CO2 reduction targets. Harris might accelerate the timeline for these vehicles to adopt ZEV technologies, pushing for 30-35% of new heavy-duty vehicle sales to be ZEVs by 2032​.
      • Focus on Hydrogen and Advanced Batteries: Given the limitations of current battery technology for heavy-duty applications, Harris is expected to promote the development and deployment of hydrogen fuel cells and advanced battery systems. These technologies would be crucial for meeting the stringent emissions standards and ensuring the viability of ZEVs in long-haul and high-load applications.

Impact on the Automotive Industry

1. Increased Pressure on OEMs
   • Faster Innovation: OEMs would face increased pressure to meet the higher ZEV targets, necessitating significant investments in new technologies and supply chains. This could accelerate the adoption of next-generation batteries and other low-emission technologies across all vehicle segments​.
2. Greater Incentives for Commercial Fleets
   • Expanded Support for Medium- and Heavy-Duty ZEVs: Harris might enhance the incentives and regulatory support for medium- and heavy-duty commercial fleets, particularly in states with stringent CARB mandates. This could include more aggressive timelines for fleet operators to transition to ZEVs, supported by federal and state-level incentives​.

Trump’s Potential Policies

Policy Rollback and Deregulation

If Donald Trump were to return to office in 2024, his approach would likely involve significant rollbacks of the current environmental regulations and incentives for electric vehicles (EVs). Here’s a detailed breakdown of how these potential policies could impact light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles:

1. Light-Duty Vehicles
   • EPA Mandate Rollback: Trump has a history of rolling back emissions standards, and he is likely to freeze or even reverse the stricter EPA mandates implemented under Biden. This could halt the progression towards the 50-60% ZEV target for light-duty vehicles by 2030, bringing it down to a much lower threshold, possibly closer to 25-3% depending on the extent of the rollback​.
   • Impact on ZEV Sales: With the removal of financial incentives such as the EV tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, consumer adoption of EVs could stall significantly. This would likely reduce the market share of ZEVs in the light-duty segment, making them less competitive against traditional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles​.
2. Medium-Duty Vehicles
   • Reduced Incentives and Deregulation: Medium-duty vehicles, such as delivery trucks and utility vehicles, would also see a rollback of emissions standards. Trump might eliminate or weaken regulations that currently push for a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2032. This could lead to a slower transition to ZEVs in this segment, with the market share potentially stalling or even declining​.
   • Shift Back to ICE Vehicles: Without stringent emissions standards, manufacturers might pivot back to ICE vehicles, delaying the adoption of battery-electric or hydrogen fuel cell technologies for medium-duty applications. The infrastructure needed for medium-duty ZEVs, such as charging stations and hydrogen refueling stations, could also see reduced federal support, further slowing progress​.
3. Heavy-Duty Vehicles
   • Impact of Rollback on ZEV Adoption: The heavy-duty segment, which includes freight trucks and buses, would be significantly impacted by a rollback of EPA regulations. Trump’s administration could freeze the CO2 reduction targets at 2025-28 levels. This would likely reduce the adoption of ZEVs in heavy-duty vehicles to below 20% by 2032, far below current projections under Biden​.
   • Focus on Gasoline and Diesel Technology?: While policy rollbacks might suggest a return to gasoline and diesel engine advancements over ZEV development, this scenario is unlikely given the global operations of major manufacturers like Daimler, Volvo and Traton (VW Group). These companies are committed to long-term sustainability goals driven by stringent international regulations and a global market increasingly focused on environmental responsibility. Even with more lenient U.S. policies, these manufacturers are unlikely to shift away from their ZEV strategies, which they see as more efficient and crucial for global competitiveness and environmental stewardship.

Impact on the Automotive Industry

1. Stalling EV Adoption
   • The rollback of EPA mandates and the elimination of financial incentives would likely stall the growth of EV adoption across all vehicle segments. Industry projections suggest that under Trump’s policies, the market share of ZEVs could fall to as low as 37% by 2030, compared to Biden’s target of 50%​.
2. Global Competitiveness and Infrastructure Development
   • As the U.S. potentially shifts focus back to ICE vehicles under Trump, other markets like China and the European Union will continue advancing their ZEV technologies and infrastructure. This could result in the U.S. conceding its leadership in the automotive industry to these regions, particularly in terms of advanced vehicle technologies and the global supply chain for EVs​.

CARB’s Regulatory Influence

Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) remains a pivotal force in driving the adoption of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) across various vehicle categories. CARB’s regulations are designed to achieve California’s ambitious environmental goals, and they extend their influence on states (13 others) that have adopted similar standards. Below is a detailed breakdown of CARB’s ZEV policies as they pertain to light, medium and heavy-duty vehicles.

Light-Duty Vehicles

CARB has set an ambitious target for light-duty vehicles, requiring that all new passenger vehicles sold in California be ZEVs by 2035. This includes Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The Advanced Clean Cars II program is the key regulatory framework driving this transition, which is part of a broader strategy to meet California’s air quality and greenhouse gas emission reduction goals​.

• ZEV Requirements: By 2035, 100% of all new light-duty vehicle sales must be ZEVs. This mandate aligns with California’s broader climate initiatives and is part of an integrated effort to reduce smog-causing pollutants and greenhouse gases.
• Technological Expectations: The focus is primarily on BEVs due to their maturity in the market and rapidly improving cost-effectiveness. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are also expected to play a role, particularly for consumers requiring longer ranges or quicker refueling times.

Medium-Duty Vehicles

For medium-duty vehicles, which include delivery trucks and utility vehicles (Class 2b-3), CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule and Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) rule set forth stringent requirements to transition these vehicles to ZEVs over the next two decades​.

• ZEV Requirements: Starting in 2024, manufacturers must begin selling an increasing percentage of zero-emission medium-duty vehicles. By 2035, 75% of all Class 4-8 straight trucks sold in California must be ZEVs.
• Fleet Operator Requirements: Fleet operators, particularly those with large fleets or those operating in sensitive air quality regions, must also begin transitioning to ZEVs, with specific milestones set for 2030 and beyond.

Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Heavy-duty vehicles, such as Class 7-8 tractors and vocational trucks, face the most challenging transition to ZEVs due to their size, weight, and operational demands. CARB has nonetheless set aggressive targets under the Advanced Clean Fleets rule, which aims for a fully zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle fleet by 2045​.

• ZEV Requirements: Starting in 2024, manufacturers must ensure that a certain percentage of heavy-duty trucks sold are ZEVs, with the goal of 40% of truck tractor sales being ZEVs by 2035. For drayage trucks operating at ports, the target is even more stringent, requiring all new trucks to be zero-emission by 2035​.
• Technological Challenges: While battery-electric technology is making inroads into heavy-duty segments, hydrogen fuel cells are expected to play a significant role in meeting these targets, particularly for long-haul and high-duty cycle applications.

Candidate Reactions to CARB Policies

Kamala Harris, as a potential successor to Biden, would likely accelerate and expand on these efforts. Given her history as California’s Attorney General, where she supported and defended CARB’s regulations, Harris would be expected to fiercely protect and enhance CARB’s authority. She might push for even stricter national standards and increase federal support for states that adopt CARB-like policies. Harris would likely use her platform to advocate for greater federal funding and incentives to bolster the infrastructure necessary for a nationwide transition to ZEVs​.

In contrast, Donald Trump would likely take a confrontational stance against CARB’s stringent regulations. Trump’s previous administration saw attempts to roll back federal emissions standards and challenge California’s ability to set its own, stricter rules. If re-elected, Trump would probably try to limit CARB’s influence by pursuing legal battles to reduce its regulatory power and by rolling back federal support for ZEV initiatives. Trump might encourage states to opt-out of CARB-aligned regulations, potentially leading to a fragmented national policy on vehicle emissions and slowing the nationwide adoption of ZEVs​.

Conclusion 

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election represents a critical juncture for the automotive industry, with significant implications for the future of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs). The policies of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump present three divergent paths that will shape the regulatory landscape, impact market dynamics, and influence the global competitiveness of U.S. automotive suppliers.

Kamala Harris would likely take this a step further, accelerating timelines and increasing federal support to ensure that ZEVs become the dominant vehicle type across all segments, from light-duty to heavy-duty vehicles. On the other hand, Donald Trump would likely roll back many of the advancements made under Biden, slowing the transition to ZEVs and focusing on ICE vehicles, which could have far-reaching consequences for the U.S.’s position in the global automotive industry.

Given these potential outcomes, automotive suppliers must proactively engage in strategic planning to navigate these scenarios:

1. Anticipate Regulatory Changes: Suppliers should closely monitor the regulatory environment, particularly with respect to EPA and CARB mandates. Understanding the direction of these regulations will be crucial for aligning product development and investment strategies.
2. Diversify Technology Portfolios: In anticipation of stricter emissions standards, suppliers should invest in the development of advanced technologies such as next-generation batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and other ZEV components. This diversification will ensure that suppliers remain competitive, regardless of the regulatory direction taken post-election.
3. Strengthen Relationships with OEMs: As automakers face increased pressure to meet ZEV targets, suppliers should position themselves as key partners in this transition. Collaborative innovation and long-term partnerships will be essential for developing the solutions needed to meet both federal and state-level mandates.
4. Leverage Incentives and Funding: With potential increases in federal and state-level incentives under Biden or Harris, suppliers should actively seek out funding opportunities to support R&D and infrastructure development. This could include leveraging grants, tax credits, and other financial incentives to accelerate the commercialization of ZEV technologies.
5. Prepare for Global Competition: With other regions like China and the European Union continuing to advance their ZEV infrastructures, U.S. suppliers must stay ahead by not only meeting domestic demands but also positioning themselves to compete in the global market. This may involve scaling production, enhancing supply chain resilience, and tapping into international markets.

In conclusion, the 2024 election will shape the future of the automotive industry in profound ways. Automotive suppliers must act now to align their strategies with the likely policy outcomes, ensuring that they can thrive in a rapidly evolving market. The choices made today will determine the industry’s trajectory for decades to come, making strategic planning more critical than ever.